Pridiction of Iowa Turning in to a Lake Again
Analyzed at 00Z Sat Apr 02, 2022
Analyzed at 03Z Saturday Apr 02, 2022
Analyzed at 06Z Sat Apr 02, 2022
Analyzed at 09Z Saturday Apr 02, 2022
Analyzed at 12Z Sabbatum Apr 02, 2022
Analyzed at 15Z Sabbatum Apr 02, 2022
Analyzed at 18Z Saturday Apr 02, 2022
Analyzed at 21Z Sat Apr 02, 2022
Analyzed at 00Z Dominicus Apr 03, 2022
Surface Fronts and Ocean-Level Pressures Legacy Page:
Analyzed 00Z Dominicus April 03, 2022
Valid 06Z Sunday Apr 03, 2022
Valid 12Z Sun April 03, 2022
Valid 18Z Lord's day April 03, 2022
Valid 00Z Mon Apr 04, 2022
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 04, 2022
Valid 00Z Tue Apr 05, 2022
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+ Short Range Forecast Discussion (24-hour interval ½-ii½)
Brusk Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EDT Sabbatum April 02 2022
Valid 00Z Sun April 03 2022 - 00Z Tue Apr 05 2022
...Storm arrangement to spread heavy pelting and severe thunderstorms beyond
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley beginning Sunday evening...
...Unsettled weather begins moving into the Pacific Northwest afterwards on
Sunday followed past heavy precipitation and windy conditions on Monday...
...Critical Fire Weather Risk over the Northern/Central Plains on Sunday...
There's a Slight Adventure of Severe Thunderstorms for much of central Florida
this night. Shortwave free energy responsible for the heavy pelting and thunderstorms
beyond central Florida yesterday and today will depart on Sunday morning.
A quasi-stationary front will linger in its aftermath leading to scattered
to isolated thunderstorm activity across the central/southern Florida
peninsula. A weak surface low force per unit area system will sweep through the Ohio
Valley and Northeast this night and tomorrow. This system will produce light
rain and snow showers across the Great Lakes and Northeast through Dominicus
afternoon.
A new system will emerge from the Rockies by Dominicus afternoon and begin
spreading scattered to isolated thunderstorms across the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorms may turn severe over portions of eastern Texas through
central Mississippi by Monday evening. Also, heavy rainfall leading to
flash flooding may develop over parts of central Oklahoma, northeastern
Texas, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana and western Mississippi.
Heavy pelting and thunderstorms will spread into the Southeast on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a strong low pressure organization will arrive over the Pacific
Northwest on Sunday morn. This arrangement will dump heavy snowfall over the
northern Cascades before expanding into the southern Cascades and Northern
Rockies on Monday. This system will also produce moderate to heavy pelting
and scattered thunderstorms across lower top areas during this fourth dimension.
Over four feet of snow are expected to autumn over the northern Cascades
through Mon.
Kebede
Graphics are available at
https://world wide web.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
+ Medium Range Forecast Discussion (Day 3-7)
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Middle College Park MD
253 PM EDT Sat April two 2022
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 5 2022 - 12Z Saturday Apr ix 2022
...Heavy rainfall/convection and runoff threat to extend into the
Southeast next Tuesday...
19Z Update: Very good synoptic calibration agreement in the 12Z
deterministic guidance continues with the amplifying trough and
evolving closed upper low over the n-fundamental U.S. through the
end of next week, with only small-scale mesoscale differences noted in
the smaller scale perturbations pivoting around the main trough.
Therefore, a multi-deterministic model blend worked well as a
forecast starting point through Th, and this maintains skilful
WPC forecast continuity. Towards the cease of the forecast flow,
the 12Z CMC is more than progressive with the side by side trough moving inland
across the northwestern U.Southward., and the GFS/GEFS represents a skillful
middle ground solution for this region past next weekend. Model
understanding is even so skilful across the eastern U.S. with the deep
trough rather slow to motility out of the region, although the GFS
becomes more amplified than the model consensus by late Sat
into next Dominicus across the Southeast U.S. The previous
discussion follows below. /Hamrick
-----------------------
...Overview...
Guidance continues to concord upon the transition of the upper level
blueprint to an amplified and slowly evolving authorities consisting of a
trough drifting over the cardinal-eastern U.S. (containing a
northern Plains into Great Lakes depression) and ridge building over the
Due west. An upstream Pacific trough should reach the Due west Declension past
around adjacent Saturday, pushing the ridge axis into the northern
Plains through southern Rockies. Ahead of the amplifying upper
trough, southern tier convection producing some heavy rainfall
expected to be already in progress at the start of the period
early Tuesday should extend through the Southeast and vicinity
Tuesday-Tuesday nighttime, helped along by a Lower Mississippi Valley
through Mid-Atlantic surface wave. The system more directly
associated with the upper trough will as well produce precipitation
across the eastern half of the country mid-late week with
potential for some areas of enhanced totals. The upper ridge
building into the Due west will bring some other period of unseasonably
warm temperatures that should summit around Thursday-Friday.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Cess...
For the most part the models and ensembles remain in expert
agreement for the overall evolution of the amplified
central-eastern U.Southward. upper trough and associated surface
evolution, with fairly typical handful of individual solutions.
Reviewing runs through the 12Z/18Z cycles, the GFS/GEFS continued
their recent tendency to exist a little on the southern/southeastern
side of the total spread for the portion of the upper low rails
over the northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley and then a bit
faster with northeastward progression of the surface reflection
over the East. Preference remained with an intermediate approach
fairly close to continuity. The new 00Z GFS offers favorable
trends in both regards. By days 6-seven Friday-Sat, the details
within the core of the upper trough become more than ambiguous as
solutions vary with where the initial upper low may track and
whether separate energy could yield another low center. Meanwhile
the Tuesday-Wednesday wave tracking from the Lower Mississippi
Valley through Mid-Atlantic displays typical besprinkle only good
continuity for the overall consensus.
Guidance has been showing some difficulty in resolving the details
of Pacific flow pushing into the western ridge belatedly in the menstruum,
equally demonstrated past a widening ensemble spread over the eastern
Pacific/western U.S. by Friday-Saturday. Through the 12Z/18Z
cycles, the ensemble means and 12Z ECMWF represented the majority
scenario of keeping the western ridge fairly strong into Friday
while a Pacific trough reaches near the Due west Coast effectually early
Sat. The 18Z GFS was somewhat slower while the past couple
CMC runs have been somewhat fast/amplified with the trough. The
new 00Z GFS has adjusted closer to the means/12Z ECMWF.
Model/ensemble comparisons and continuity led to favoring an
operational model blend during the first half of the menses and
then a transition to a model/hateful mix with the increase of detail
incertitude. This yielded a lx-seventy percent tilt toward the ECMWF
cluster where differences existed and the new 00Z GFS adds support
for leaning away from some specifics of earlier GFS cycles.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
A leading central-eastern U.Southward. shortwave and Lower Mississippi
Valley through Mid-Atlantic surface low will help to focus areas
of heavy rainfall over the Southeast and vicinity Tuesday into
Tuesday dark, extending an event that should initiate farther
westward in the short-range fourth dimension frame. The deep upper depression
tracking over the northern Plains and Great Lakes will support a
corresponding surface low while leading elevation falls volition bring a
front to the East Coast, with a triple signal wave possibly
becoming the ascendant surface feature past the cease of the week.
Over the course of the catamenia these features may produce some
areas of heavy precipitation over the northern and eastern U.Due south.
but with uncertainty over specifics at this fourth dimension. Regions of
potential involvement include parts of the Midwest to Lake Superior
with the parent organisation, portions of the Northeast where a coastal
wave could focus moisture, and locations farther south forth the
trailing common cold front. Cheque the Storm Prediction Eye's latest
outlooks for more than information regarding severe threats across the
southern tier. Extreme northern areas from the Upper Midwest into
interior New England may see some precipitation fall in the form
of snow. Over the West, the strong jet initially crossing the
region should produce some light to moderate rain/high height
snow during Tuesday. Then expect about of the region to exist dry
until late in the week when lite precipitation may reach the
Northwest ahead of an approaching upper trough.
Look the Southwest to run across highs up to 10-15F above normal
through the catamenia. The upper ridge building into the West volition
aggrandize coverage of higher up normal temperatures mid-late calendar week,
followed past some moderation on Sabbatum as the Pacific trough
arrives. Much of California should see highs at least 10F to a higher place
normal Wednesday and greatest anomalies (plus 10-20F and locally
college) volition likely extend from California and southern Oregon
into the Neat Basin Thursday-Friday. Some daily records for
highs/warm lows will be possible tardily in the week. Meanwhile cool
air under the amplifying upper trough volition bring highs downwards to
five-15F below normal over the northern Rockies on Tuesday, the
key U.South. Wed-Thursday, and eastern states by
Friday-Saturday. Flow ahead of the upper trough/surface system
will bring a couple days of higher up normal readings (especially for
forenoon lows) to the East effectually Wednesday-Thursday.
Rausch/Hamrick
Additional 3-seven Day Risk information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall
outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are
at:
https://world wide web.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://world wide web.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-vii.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://world wide web.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?mean solar day=ivhttps://world wide web.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
+ Hawaii Forecast Discussion (Solar day i-7)
Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Conditions Prediction Eye College Park MD
341 AM EDT Saturday Apr 02 2022
Valid 00Z Sun April 03 2022 - 00Z Sun April ten 2022
Virtually of the latest models and ways are amusing and consistent
through the showtime half of next week, followed by recent GFS trends
providing amend clustering for the overall pattern aloft mid-late
week just even so with some question marks for details.
Look brisk trades through the weekend as loftier pressure level passes by
n of the state, followed by a weakening trend during the first
one-half of the next piece of work calendar week as the high continues east and a cold
front approaches from the northwest. Through the weekend,
beneath-climatology precipitable water values should help to keep
primarily windward-focused showers on the lite to moderate side.
A complex of upper level impulses ahead of a farther west upper
low should lift wet into the main islands from the s late
Monday through Tuesday, leading to some increase of rainfall which
may feel some state/sea breeze influence if trades become
light plenty. The enhanced wet should become suppressed back to
the south starting on Wednesday. Through the rest of the calendar week the
state may lie within a narrow band of relatively lower moisture
betwixt a stalled front end to the north and the greater wet to
the southward. Trades and windward shower focus should rebound by
Th as another high tracks due north of the expanse with a possible
shift of the trades to some southeasterly component toward the stop
of the week. Through late week guidance maintains a degree of
cyclonic menses aloft merely with slowly rising heights. Latest GFS
runs take trended away from the sharper trough that would have
brought more moisture from the s into the surface area. Nonetheless by
Fri-Saturday the 00Z GFS and to some degree GEFS hateful testify
lower heights than other models/means, leading to slightly lower
surface pressures and weaker gradient over the islands.
Rausch
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+ Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather condition Prediction Center Higher Park MD
839 PM EDT Sat April 02 2022
24-hour interval 1
Valid 01Z Lord's day Apr 03 2022 - 12Z Sun Apr 03 2022
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL Across
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
01Z Update...
Removed the Slight Take chances in the northern Florida peninsula now that
the bulk of the rainfall has shifted to the key and southern
portion of the peninsula. The strongest convection with the
heaviest rainfall had largely shifted off-shore during the
afternoon only at that place was still convection lingering forth the
immediate eastward coast and building towards the all-time instability.
Given the current trends...and with the expectation that the
convection will linger a few more hours...shifted the entire
Marginal Risk surface area southward. Felt it was as well early on to remove the
central portion of the peninsula given the amount of convection
located off the western peninsula coastline that may still come up
inland and track over areas that take been soaked over the
previous couple of days. Over the southeast portion of the
peninsula...urban flooding is a bigger concern through 03Z given
the run off potential from rainfall rates briefly exceeding ii
inches per 60 minutes resulting from SBCAE in excess of 2000 J per kg
beyond the southeast Florida peninsula.
Bann
16Z Update...IR satellite imagery depicts robust deep moist
convection tracking through the northeast Gulf of United mexican states and
closing in on north-central Florida. While the lack of sufficient
instability should lead to diminishing convection in the
Panhandle, MLCAPE values continue to rise along and but s of
the stationary front over due north-central Florida. The 12Z TBW
sounding was even more than supportive of efficient warm rain processes
than yesterday. Mean mixing ratio is ~5 g/kg higher than yesterday
at 12Z, as is low level RH which was at 96% and LCL height was
lower, resulting in warm deject layers deeper than 12,000' aloft.
These are all higher than yesterday's values which still produced
3-5" of rainfall north of Tampa and just north and westward of
Orlando. Taking into account the 850-300mb flow that remains
parallel to the frontal purlieus draped across key Florida
there is a concern for training convection, betwixt both the
electric current morn convection and the diurnally driven convection
later this afternoon. MPD #0095 has been published to address the
electric current convection and growing threat for excessive rainfall into
the afternoon beyond north-central Florida. Delight read MPD #0095
for more than details.
The latest Slight Run a risk area was drawn to account for area that are
more at risk for flooding due to wetter ancestor soil moisture
atmospheric condition from contempo heavy rainfall. There is also the
potential, nonetheless, for convection to form slightly farther s
towards the northern periphery of the Tampa metro area, where
greater MLCAPE is present and where initiation from colliding bounding main
breeze/outflow boundaries may occur. Should the boundary inch far
enough south, the Tampa metro may also fence with excessive
rainfall rates. Farther due east, the sea breeze front forecast to
propagate inland near and s of Cape Canaveral volition clash with
SW 925-850mb flow, which given 35-45 knots of bulk constructive shear
this afternoon, could sustained organized convection long enough
to generate localized wink flooding along the coast. The southern
most reaches of the Slight and Marginal Chance areas are still
experiencing D0-D1 drought conditions, which may help to concur off
potential flooding concerns south and eastward of the Tampa expanse.
Still, rounds of convection are anticipated with flash flooding
potential highest in the areas with highest antecedent soil
moisture conditions, besides as more urbanized locations and poor
drainage areas.
Mullinax
...Previous Give-and-take...
A quasi-stationary front extending west to e across the central
Florida Peninsula into the central Gulf of Mexico will become
convectively active during the solar day today. Shortwave free energy
budgeted from the due west inside the southern stream menstruation should
help to increment low level southwesterly menstruum across the eastern
Gulf during the afternoon. Overrunning showers and thunderstorms
will become widespread along and northward of the boundary and
approach the western Florida Peninsula during the first half of
the period. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will track eastward
across central to northern Florida with potential for west to eastward
repeating/training within the hateful westerly flow aloft.
Meanwhile, sea breeze activeness is expected within the moist and
unstable environment (PWATs i.5 to near 2.0 inches and MLCAPE of
at least thou-2000 J/kg). Low level flow from the WSW will meet
with the eastern sea breeze purlieus which could support some
slower prison cell movement, combined with activity approaching from the
northwest. Kinematic profiles support bowing segments toward the
southeast which should become the dominant mode toward 00Z,
lessening the wink alluvion threat for the latter half of the
outlook period. Greater concern for runoff will be over those
portions of the primal and northern Peninsula which have received
2-4 inches of rain, locally near five-6 inches most Melbourne, over
the past 1-2 days.
Otto
Day one threat surface area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 PM EDT Sabbatum April 02 2022
Day ii
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 03 2022 - 12Z Mon April 04 2022
...There ARE MARGINAL RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN FAR South
FLORIDA, OKLAHOMA, NORTHERN TEXAS, AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...
...20Z Update...
Virtually notable change for the Solar day 2 forecast was to add a pocket-sized
Marginal Risk surface area around the immediate Miami metro area equally the
tail end of the front end presently over central Florida makes its fashion
through the surface area Sunday afternoon. Mean 850-300mb flow remains
largely parallel to the front end as information technology slowly inches s throughout
the 24-hour interval. Not all guidance is in agreement on the front'due south forrard
speed, leaving the door open up for the possibility of convection
firing over the Miami metro during acme heating and as the sea
cakewalk propogates inland. PW anomalies of i.5-2 STDs above normal
and MLCAPE up to 1,500 J/kg are available betwixt 18Z Sunday-00Z
Monday when the front is nearby. Modeled expanse soundings depict an
air-mass that does contain some dry air and weak synoptic ascent,
which does limit the areal extent for potential heavy rainfall.
The master concerns are in the more urbanized locations where
rain water may more readily become runoff on hydrophobic surfaces.
Meanwhile, not much change in the forecast rationale in the
Southern Plains or Pacific Northwest. The latter in particular has
been quite dry in recent weeks, and then the expectation remains that a
Marginal Risk is not required in the Pacific Northwest at this
time.
Mullinax
~~Previous Discussion~~
...Oklahoma/Texas/Arkansas...
Out ahead of a northern stream shortwave tracking into the Upper
Midwest, a cold front end will motility into the Southern Plains on Sunday
and stall near the Red River Sunday night. Pocket-sized moisture return
will occur from the Gulf of United mexican states and pool forth the frontal
boundary, with surface dewpoints in the mid-50s on either side of
the Blood-red River and precipitable water values near an inch in the
pre-convective environment belatedly Sun afternoon. Strengthening of
the depression level jet is forecast into the 30-fifty kt range over Texas
between 00-06Z Monday along with the approaching left exit region
of a 90-110 kt upper level jet max which should increase the
coverage of thunderstorms across western portions of the outlook
area, with initial movement off toward the east. Some cursory
repeating cells volition be possible which could surpass surface area flash
alluvion guidance of ii.5 to iv inches in iii hours.
...Pacific Northwest...
A potent shortwave and the olfactory organ of a strong upper level jet
(150-170 kt over the northeastern Pacific) will achieve the Pacific
Northwest late Sunday. 2 waves of rainfall are likely to move
into the Pacific Northwest on Dominicus/Sunday night. The first round
will be tied to warm advection with PWATs peaking in the 0.6 to
0.7 inch range for western Washington along with 30 to 45 kt of
850 mb flow from the southwest. A stronger button of low level
moisture into the coasts of Washington and Oregon will occur out
ahead of an approaching cold front with Integrated Vapor Transport
values of 400-600 kg/m/south between 00-12Z Monday, briefing exceeding
600 kg/g/s overnight. Relatively low snow levels and the short
elapsing of higher rainfall intensities should limit hydrologic
issues beyond the Pacific Northwest. The result appears to fall
below criteria for a Marginal Take a chance at this time.
Otto
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Word
NWS Weather Prediction Heart College Park MD
413 PM EDT Sat Apr 02 2022
Twenty-four hours 3
Valid 12Z Monday Apr 04 2022 - 12Z Tue April 05 2022
...At that place IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER EASTERN
TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...20Z Update...
Recent trends in ensemble guidance take pointed to a more than
diffluent flow setup over southern Oklahoma, northeast Texas,
western Arkansas, and far southern Missouri. Differences remain in
the depth and speed of the upper trough tracking through Texas
with the GEFS (ECM) on the faster (slower) sides of guidance.
While this aspect of the forecast remains unclear, both show a
pair of jet streaks; one over the Lower Rio Grande and another off
the Northeast coast. The left exit region of the Texas jet streak
and the right archway region of the jet streak positioned off the
Eastward Coast align atop the Southern Plains and Ozarks, supporting
an environment with stiff vertical ascension at mid-upper levels.
The 00Z ECM did show an secondary atmospheric precipitation maximum over
southern Oklahoma where the strongest vertical motion aloft is
predictable. Least 12Z global guidance likewise indicated ~500-1500
J/kg of instability is also nowadays as the depression level jet directs
increasing 850mb moisture flux at the region. One limiting factor
for potentially limiting the inundation threat is ongoing drought
atmospheric condition in parts of n Texas and Oklahoma. All the same, electric current
feeling is atmospheric precipitation on Day ii may moisten up the drier
antecedent soil weather enough in parts of the region to allow
a improve chance for increased hydrologic responses on Day three.
Did a subtle expansion of the Slight Run a risk in the Lower Mississippi
Valley where the best 850mb moisture flux and highest Pw anomalies
(ii-2.5+ sigma on average) are predictable Mon night as the warm
forepart lifts through the region. Rainfall totals mentioned
overnight nonetheless appear to be on track after reviewing the latest
daytime guidance. Have chosen to not extend the Marginal & Slight
Risks areas to far east into Alabama at this time given ongoing
differences in speed of the convection forecast to track beyond
the Lower Mississippi Valley Monday dark.
Mullinax
...Previous Discussion...
The arroyo of a positively tilted upper level trough from the
southwestern U.S. into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Southern
Plains between Monday and Tuesday morn should allow for a
widespread rainfall event across portions of the southern U.S.
Strengthening low level menstruum in the western Gulf of United mexican states will
overrun a due west-east oriented warm forepart which is expected to lift
into the Lower Mississippi Valley during the day on Mon.
Precipitable water values in excess of i.v inches (roughly +two
standardized anomalies) are forecast past the model consensus to
develop over eastern Texas/Oklahoma into the Southeast.
While some of the global guidance may be suffering from convective
feedback, a depression level wave is expected to form along the warm
front and runway eastward from Texas into the Lower Mississippi
Valley Monday dark. Model forecasts just ahead of this moving ridge testify
near 50 kt of 850 mb current of air speeds. Upper level divergence and
diffluence will maximize across the eastern Texas/Oklahoma border
into the Lower Mississippi Valley where the Slight Risk was
placed. Cape forecasts of 500-1500 J/kg forth with the moisture
should support rainfall rates of at least 1-two in/hr and periods of
repeating volition permit for locally higher pockets of rainfall in the
two-4 inch range, perhaps peaking nearly v inches by Tuesday morning.
Spread in model guidance is college than average with some guidance
favoring greater precipitation totals from the Red River into
Arkansas and northern Mississippi while others are south into
northern Louisiana and central Mississippi and the Gulf Declension. The
Slight Run a risk covers the greatest conviction for excessive rainfall,
while the broad Marginal covers some of the spread seen in the
guidance. Given the expansive region of low level warm advection,
heavier rainfall forth the central Gulf Declension into southern
Alabama/Georgia will exist possible. This surface area will have to be
monitored for expansion of the Marginal Risk equally the event draws
nearer.
Otto
Twenty-four hours 3 threat area: world wide web.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
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+ Forecast Discussion (Day one-3)
Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather condition Prediction Center College Park Dr.
339 PM EDT Sabbatum Apr 02 2022
Valid 00Z Sun Apr 03 2022 - 00Z Midweek Apr 06 2022
...Eastern Great Lakes and Northeast...
Day i...
Amplified shortwave will move through the region late tonight
through Dominicus in tandem with an area of low pressure along the
NY/PA edge. Snow in the morn will change to a rain/snow mix
over many areas during the afternoon, with mostly calorie-free
amounts. Some higher totals almost iv inches are possible, merely will
probable be mostly bars to the higher elevations of the
Catskills.
...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest/Peachy Lakes...
Days ane-three...
A shortwave currently moving through the the northern Rockies will
chop-chop move into the High Plains overnight and into the Upper
Midwest/Corn Belt Lord's day into Dominicus nighttime. An inch or two of snowfall
is possible over portions of western to central North Dakota, into
northeastern South Dakota on Sunday, before shifting farther east
into Wisconsin and Lower Michigan Sunday night into Mon.
...Northwest to the northern Rockies...
Days one-3...
Past Sunday night, a strong/extended jet (160 kts) across most of
the Pacific volition aim into the Northwest coast with a pregnant
moisture flux reaching into western Washington/Oregon.
West-southwest period volition capitalize on upslope into the Olympics
and Washington Cascades where widespread accumulations of a foot
or more than are likely and multiple feet are possible across the
higher peaks. Pregnant accumulations are possible at some
passes besides. Along the Oregon Cascades, lesser amounts are
expected into early Monday where snow levels will exist college. By
early Tuesday, snow levels will drop to around 2000ft across WA as
the precipitation but starts to wind down. Accumulations over the
Oregon Cascades will increase markedly on Mon. Also on Day 3,
every bit the trough or closed low and jet move eastward of the Split, snow
will spread across Idaho/western Montana and into Wyoming with
several inches likely in a higher place 6000ft, but snow levels will lower
quickly Tuesday morning to most valley flooring locations.
...Colorado/New Mexico Rockies...
Days one-two...
Weak upper trough and surface cold front end will atomic number 82 to an increase
in snow over higher elevations of Colorado on Sunday, aided by
upslope menstruation as a small area of loftier force per unit area sinks southeastward
over the Plains. At to the lowest degree a few inches of snow can be expected
beyond the higher elevations of the primal Colorado and far
northern New Mexico ranges.
For Days 1-3, the probability of meaning icing of at least
0.25" is less than 10 percent.
Pereira/Fracasso
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Valid 12Z Wednesday Apr 06, 2022
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Valid 12Z Friday Apr 08, 2022
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Valid 12Z Dominicus Apr x, 2022
+ Forecast Discussion
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Atmospheric condition Prediction Center College Park Physician
253 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022
Valid 12Z Tue April five 2022 - 12Z Sat April 9 2022
...Heavy rainfall/convection and runoff threat to extend into the
Southeast next Tuesday...
19Z Update: Very good synoptic scale understanding in the 12Z
deterministic guidance continues with the amplifying trough and
evolving closed upper low over the north-central U.S. through the
terminate of next calendar week, with only minor mesoscale differences noted in
the smaller scale perturbations pivoting around the main trough.
Therefore, a multi-deterministic model blend worked well as a
forecast starting point through Th, and this maintains good
WPC forecast continuity. Towards the end of the forecast period,
the 12Z CMC is more progressive with the next trough moving inland
beyond the northwestern U.S., and the GFS/GEFS represents a skillful
middle ground solution for this region by next weekend. Model
agreement is still skillful across the eastern U.S. with the deep
trough rather tiresome to move out of the region, although the GFS
becomes more amplified than the model consensus by late Saturday
into next Sunday across the Southeast U.S. The previous
discussion follows below. /Hamrick
-----------------------
...Overview...
Guidance continues to agree upon the transition of the upper level
pattern to an amplified and slowly evolving regime consisting of a
trough drifting over the key-eastern U.Southward. (containing a
northern Plains into Keen Lakes low) and ridge building over the
West. An upstream Pacific trough should accomplish the West Coast by
around next Saturday, pushing the ridge axis into the northern
Plains through southern Rockies. Ahead of the amplifying upper
trough, southern tier convection producing some heavy rainfall
expected to exist already in progress at the start of the menstruation
early Tuesday should extend through the Southeast and vicinity
Tuesday-Tuesday nighttime, helped forth by a Lower Mississippi Valley
through Mid-Atlantic surface wave. The system more than directly
associated with the upper trough will likewise produce atmospheric precipitation
across the eastern half of the country mid-late week with
potential for some areas of enhanced totals. The upper ridge
building into the Due west will bring some other menstruation of unseasonably
warm temperatures that should peak effectually Thursday-Fri.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
For the well-nigh function the models and ensembles remain in adept
understanding for the overall evolution of the amplified
fundamental-eastern U.S. upper trough and associated surface
evolution, with adequately typical scattering of individual solutions.
Reviewing runs through the 12Z/18Z cycles, the GFS/GEFS connected
their contempo tendency to be a piddling on the southern/southeastern
side of the full spread for the portion of the upper depression track
over the northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley and then a bit
faster with northeastward progression of the surface reflection
over the East. Preference remained with an intermediate approach
fairly close to continuity. The new 00Z GFS offers favorable
trends in both regards. By days 6-7 Friday-Sat, the details
within the core of the upper trough become more ambiguous as
solutions vary with where the initial upper low may rail and
whether dissever energy could yield another depression heart. Meanwhile
the Tuesday-Wednesday wave tracking from the Lower Mississippi
Valley through Mid-Atlantic displays typical scatter but good
continuity for the overall consensus.
Guidance has been showing some difficulty in resolving the details
of Pacific flow pushing into the western ridge late in the period,
equally demonstrated by a widening ensemble spread over the eastern
Pacific/western U.S. by Fri-Saturday. Through the 12Z/18Z
cycles, the ensemble means and 12Z ECMWF represented the majority
scenario of keeping the western ridge adequately strong into Friday
while a Pacific trough reaches near the West Coast around early on
Sat. The 18Z GFS was somewhat slower while the past couple
CMC runs take been somewhat fast/amplified with the trough. The
new 00Z GFS has adjusted closer to the ways/12Z ECMWF.
Model/ensemble comparisons and continuity led to favoring an
operational model blend during the commencement half of the menstruum and
then a transition to a model/mean mix with the increase of particular
uncertainty. This yielded a 60-70 per centum tilt toward the ECMWF
cluster where differences existed and the new 00Z GFS adds back up
for leaning away from some specifics of before GFS cycles.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
A leading central-eastern U.South. shortwave and Lower Mississippi
Valley through Mid-Atlantic surface low will assist to focus areas
of heavy rainfall over the Southeast and vicinity Tuesday into
Tuesday dark, extending an event that should initiate farther
westward in the curt-range time frame. The deep upper low
tracking over the northern Plains and Great Lakes will back up a
corresponding surface low while leading top falls volition bring a
front to the East Coast, with a triple point wave possibly
becoming the dominant surface characteristic past the end of the week.
Over the form of the flow these features may produce some
areas of heavy precipitation over the northern and eastern U.Due south.
just with uncertainty over specifics at this fourth dimension. Regions of
potential interest include parts of the Midwest to Lake Superior
with the parent organization, portions of the Northeast where a coastal
moving ridge could focus moisture, and locations farther south along the
trailing cold front. Bank check the Tempest Prediction Center's latest
outlooks for more data regarding severe threats across the
southern tier. Farthermost northern areas from the Upper Midwest into
interior New England may see some atmospheric precipitation fall in the form
of snow. Over the West, the strong jet initially crossing the
region should produce some light to moderate pelting/high elevation
snow during Tuesday. And then wait most of the region to be dry
until late in the week when light atmospheric precipitation may achieve the
Northwest ahead of an approaching upper trough.
Expect the Southwest to see highs upward to 10-15F above normal
through the flow. The upper ridge building into the Westward will
expand coverage of above normal temperatures mid-belatedly calendar week,
followed by some moderation on Sat as the Pacific trough
arrives. Much of California should see highs at least 10F above
normal Midweek and greatest anomalies (plus 10-20F and locally
higher) will likely extend from California and southern Oregon
into the Great Basin Thursday-Friday. Some daily records for
highs/warm lows will be possible belatedly in the calendar week. Meanwhile cool
air under the amplifying upper trough will bring highs down to
5-15F below normal over the northern Rockies on Tuesday, the
central U.S. Midweek-Thursday, and eastern states past
Friday-Sat. Period ahead of the upper trough/surface system
will bring a couple days of higher up normal readings (especially for
morning lows) to the East around Wednesday-Thursday.
Rausch/Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Twenty-four hour period Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative atmospheric precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall
outlook, winter weather condition outlook probabilities and estrus indices are
at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://world wide web.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#folio=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
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